Gravitas: Joe Biden's mission to tame oil prices
Joe Biden is reportedly planning a Saudi Arabia trip to push Riyadh into producing more oil He also dispatched officials to repair America's frayed ties with Venezuela
Will Biden's mission to tame oil prices succeed?
Palki Sharma tells you
Joe Biden's mission to tame Oil prices
Biden has offended Arabia, two times. He has declassified two major incidents who implicated that the kingdom was involved with 911 and the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Biden was more interested in lectures than partnership
He went to Arabia with two goals. To get Saudi produce more oil and in the longer run repair the bilateral ties. But expensive oil is god not only for Russia, but also for Saudi Arabia. It make more profits. If Rhyad shall sacrifice its profit, it will have something in return. Perhaps more defense exports, perhaps fewer lectures of freedom and more support of the Yemen War
The Saudi Crown Prince made some interesting comments in the beginning of Mars. He said that he doesn't care i Biden misunderstand him, and that should set the tone before the meeting between these two leaders
Next stop in Biden's checklist is Venezuela, something who will be even more difficult as US government don't support president Nicolas Maduro but his rival Juan Guido. Washington has also placed heavy sanctions on Venezuela
Right now the Venezuelan oil industry is under sanctions. They cannot sell oil at the global markets. If Washington lifts those sanctions that changes. More oil enters the marked and the price is gradually stabilizes. Secondly Venezuela is a Russian ally. Possible Putin's best friend in Latin America. So if Biden can force Nicolas Manduro to switch sides it would further isolate Moscow. The plan sounds great. But there are two major problems
1. Venezuela's oil industry is in the dumps. In 19190 they produced 3.2 million barrels per day. Today, around 800.000. So Venezuela does not have the capacity to fill the gaps2. Manduro doesn't want a strategic realignment. He wants the US to lift his sanctions. That's it. He don't want an anliance with Joe Biden
Third in in Bidens list is Iran. This could be a gamechanger. If it's happened. Iran can produce 4 million barrels per day. If they re-enter the oil marked prices could stabilize. But for that the nuclear deal must be revived. Sanction must be lifted. What's the status to that?
The US says they're getting closer to a deal, but Russia playing hardball. The Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says that they has requested their American colleagues to give them written guaranties at least at the level of the secretary of the state. So that the current process launched by the US will not by any means affect Russia's right for a free and full-fledged trade economic, military and investment cooperation with IranAny deal struck in Vienna will have to be cleared of Vladimir Putin, so here too there's no guarantee of success. But the plan is quite clear. Isolate Russia further. Close all avenues of cooperation
Iran and Venezuela is Putins backup plan. His strategy to blunt western sanctions. So Joe Biden is trying to rest them away. Chances are that both affords will end in failure. US may lift sanctions but Venezuela and Iran will never side with them. So that's Biden game plan
What about Putins game plan? What is he up to?
Russia cannot survive just with support from just Iran and Venezuela. It needs a bigger player. Putin is hoping that will be China. What is the response from Beijing?
We'll here's what foreign minister Wong Yo said:The development of China Russia has a clear historical logic and a strong indigenous driving force. The friendship of the two peoples is rock solid. No matter how sinister the international situation is. Both China and Russia will maintain their strategic focus and continuously push forward the comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation in the new era
In other words. China will not abandon Russia. Its sounds resolute, but this is China. When the first sign of trouble they will bolt. We have already seen indications of this. And China has refused to back Russia in the UN voted Thrice on Russia. Three times, same with sanctions China may be sparring with the west, but they still need western technology. They need swift payment systems. They need western internet structure, so the Chinese companies get caught in the crossfire
Beijing will bolt and this leaves both leaders uot of their comfort zone. Biden and PutinPutin is used to push world leaders around. He's been leading Russia in two decades. He's the top dog in most rooms. With China changes at this rate-. Putin will need Xi Jinping to keep his country afloat and that power imbalance will irk Vladimir Putin
So as Joe Biden. He will have to shelve his so-called lectures. Saudi Arabia has a poor rights record. So do Iran and Venezuela. If Biden really wants to truly isolate Russia. He will have to move out of his comfort zone. He will have to quote leaders he normally would not and neither leader will enjoy this. But that's the cost of international politics
Will Biden's mission to tame oil prices succeed?
Palki Sharma tells you
Joe Biden's mission to tame Oil prices
Biden has offended Arabia, two times. He has declassified two major incidents who implicated that the kingdom was involved with 911 and the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Biden was more interested in lectures than partnership
He went to Arabia with two goals. To get Saudi produce more oil and in the longer run repair the bilateral ties. But expensive oil is god not only for Russia, but also for Saudi Arabia. It make more profits. If Rhyad shall sacrifice its profit, it will have something in return. Perhaps more defense exports, perhaps fewer lectures of freedom and more support of the Yemen War
The Saudi Crown Prince made some interesting comments in the beginning of Mars. He said that he doesn't care i Biden misunderstand him, and that should set the tone before the meeting between these two leaders
Next stop in Biden's checklist is Venezuela, something who will be even more difficult as US government don't support president Nicolas Maduro but his rival Juan Guido. Washington has also placed heavy sanctions on Venezuela
Right now the Venezuelan oil industry is under sanctions. They cannot sell oil at the global markets. If Washington lifts those sanctions that changes. More oil enters the marked and the price is gradually stabilizes. Secondly Venezuela is a Russian ally. Possible Putin's best friend in Latin America. So if Biden can force Nicolas Manduro to switch sides it would further isolate Moscow. The plan sounds great. But there are two major problems
1. Venezuela's oil industry is in the dumps. In 19190 they produced 3.2 million barrels per day. Today, around 800.000. So Venezuela does not have the capacity to fill the gaps
2. Manduro doesn't want a strategic realignment. He wants the US to lift his sanctions. That's it. He don't want an anliance with Joe Biden
Third in in Bidens list is Iran. This could be a gamechanger. If it's happened. Iran can produce 4 million barrels per day. If they re-enter the oil marked prices could stabilize. But for that the nuclear deal must be revived. Sanction must be lifted. What's the status to that?
The US says they're getting closer to a deal, but Russia playing hardball. The Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says that they has requested their American colleagues to give them written guaranties at least at the level of the secretary of the state. So that the current process launched by the US will not by any means affect Russia's right for a free and full-fledged trade economic, military and investment cooperation with Iran
Any deal struck in Vienna will have to be cleared of Vladimir Putin, so here too there's no guarantee of success. But the plan is quite clear. Isolate Russia further. Close all avenues of cooperation
Iran and Venezuela is Putins backup plan. His strategy to blunt western sanctions. So Joe Biden is trying to rest them away. Chances are that both affords will end in failure. US may lift sanctions but Venezuela and Iran will never side with them. So that's Biden game plan
What about Putins game plan? What is he up to?
Russia cannot survive just with support from just Iran and Venezuela. It needs a bigger player. Putin is hoping that will be China. What is the response from Beijing?
We'll here's what foreign minister Wong Yo said:
The development of China Russia has a clear historical logic and a strong indigenous driving force. The friendship of the two peoples is rock solid. No matter how sinister the international situation is. Both China and Russia will maintain their strategic focus and continuously push forward the comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation in the new era
In other words. China will not abandon Russia. Its sounds resolute, but this is China. When the first sign of trouble they will bolt. We have already seen indications of this. And China has refused to back Russia in the UN voted Thrice on Russia. Three times, same with sanctions
China may be sparring with the west, but they still need western technology. They need swift payment systems. They need western internet structure, so the Chinese companies get caught in the crossfire
Beijing will bolt and this leaves both leaders uot of their comfort zone. Biden and Putin
Putin is used to push world leaders around. He's been leading Russia in two decades. He's the top dog in most rooms. With China changes at this rate-. Putin will need Xi Jinping to keep his country afloat and that power imbalance will irk Vladimir Putin
So as Joe Biden. He will have to shelve his so-called lectures. Saudi Arabia has a poor rights record. So do Iran and Venezuela. If Biden really wants to truly isolate Russia. He will have to move out of his comfort zone. He will have to quote leaders he normally would not and neither leader will enjoy this. But that's the cost of international politics
Leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are reportedly ignoring phone calls from US President Joe Biden
Has Biden failed to rally US allies against Russia?
Despite a 50-year career in politics, what explains Biden's foreign policy shortcomings?
Palki Sharma tells you
Gravitas: Oil rises after Biden's West Asia trip
Gulf states refused to increase oil production despite a nudge from US President Joe Biden Oil prices topped $100 per barrel after the snub by Saudi Arabia and its gulf alliesPalki Sharma recaps Biden's West Asia misfire
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